ONLY HOPE

This does not look as easy as it is.

Aside from the President of the Philippines, perhaps there is no other government agency that receives more criticism than the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration or PAG-ASA. After all, it is the institution responsible for providing flood and typhoon warnings, monitoring the weather and climate conditions around the country, and conducting astronomical and meteorological studies, all of which will no doubt influence the day-to-day activities, operations, and behaviour of every human being living in the Philippines. Because of this huge responsibility and the possible vast consequences of the actions of PAG-ASA, the people expect perfect forecasts by the agency every single time. As a result, the populace may have a valid reason to complain when PAG-ASA predicts the weather wrong every once in a while.

But recently, PAG-ASA has been receiving criticism a lot more than once in a while. Starting with the disaster induced by the typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng all over Luzon in 2009, the agency served as a punching bag for right hooks, left jabs, and 1-2 combinations of complaints from the victims and those who saw the horrors brought by typhoons Basyang in 2010, and Juaning just this month. The onslaught of typhoons has brought cancellations to classes and office work, sometimes in the middle of the day, causing anxiety attacks and severe headaches among parents and guardians alike, worried about the safety of their children at school and, occasionally, their profits at their pockets. The dissatisfaction with its performance took center-stage in August 2010, when President Benigno Aquino III himself voiced his own disapproval of the state of the agency, paving the way to current personnel changes and equipment modernization.

With all the bruises and wounds received by PAG-ASA from verbal assaults of alleged incompetence, is it fair to criticize the agency in such a manner? Is it right to blame PAG-ASA for all the things it gets blamed for by the masses?

Of course, the safe answer for this question will be both YES and NO. YES because it is impossible that for its 28 ½ years of existence, there is no way that PAG-ASA had nothing to do with the failures the people are accusing them of. Still, I believe that PAG-ASA does not deserve to receive so much criticism for its alleged incompetence, specifically in the two particular areas upon which the agency is being blamed on: inability to provide consistently correct weather forecasts and slow dissemination of information concerning matters that may be affected by said predictions.

First of all, PAG-ASA does provide consistently correct weather forecasts. If they were not consistently correct, then the country will be in complete disarray at the moment, wondering whether some god simply tripped and fell so forcefully it wiped out the entire universal order. In fact, you have to be impressed with the ability of these scientists’ ability to give out mostly accurate scientific data, given the dire situation of the agency, which brings me to my next point: despite the popular belief that there is no such thing as an instrumental error, more times than not the forecasts of PAG-ASA are caused by the ineffectiveness and a lack of modernization of their equipment. Well, not until recently.

For years, PAG-ASA has relied on the Public Storm Warning Signals System, where the strength of the winds of a typhoon and its speed are classified into four categories, which are, well, I, II, III, and IV. While more advanced countries basically use the same style of classifying storms, the problem with this system is that it only considers the wind part of the storm; it never indicates any close-enough intensity of the rain part. This is precisely why the disaster of Ondoy and Pepeng took place; it was because the people were not ready for it. However, the modern nations have a Doppler radar, an instrument for indicating the characteristics of rainfall, for that purpose. In the Philippines, the device was not installed into the weather-tracking system until just the end of last year in Baler, Aurora and Baguio. In addition, an automated rain gauge has finally been added in Montalban, Rizal in cooperation with Smart Communications for easier dissemination of information.

Although the modernization of equipment is a welcome addition to PAG-ASA, some issues arise from it. The so-called advancement of the weather forecasting system relative to global standards is just like scoring a point after being down by a huge margin with 15 seconds in the game: came too little, way too late. Oh well, at least it is better than nothing. Besides, we Filipinos are very skilled and are completely capable of finding our way around things. I had the opportunity of seeing a simpler version (maybe it really was the real version, but I am not sure) of the Landslide Early Warning Sensor in a field trip to the University of the Philippines, and I was genuinely impressed by the device. Sometimes, it makes me wonder: if the Philippine government has the time and money to attract foreign investors to the Philippines, why don’t they actively encourage them more to invest on the inventions and devices of our own inventors and manufacturers instead on some business front controlled by crocodiles disguised as honourable gentlemen?

Speaking of honourable gentlemen, PAG-ASA has traditionally received the rage of the populace for their children, friends, or relatives feeling like they’re walking in the rain, claiming that it releases information so slowly that it often causes inconvenience for the Filipinos. While that may apply for the past few years (it is another main point of the President’s criticism), the same cannot be said true for the current situation, as PAG-ASA changed its information dissemination regarding weather forecasts from every 6 hours to every one hour.

So who should the people blame? Of course, it should be the local government units that should shoulder the main bulk of criticism. Yes, aside from the corruption and all that usual beliefs about the activities of our congressmen, mayors, and councillors, the same honourable gentlemen that you chose (or allowed to be chosen by other people) are to blame. No matter how skilled the men and women at PAG-ASA are, the local government units are still the ones who should know what is best for their respective constituencies, given that they are representing these people and, theoretically, should know most of their needs. So if that is the case, then why is it so hard for them to decide whether classes will be suspended or whether to evacuate or not, early enough to avoid inconveniences?

Then again, what else is new in this country? It seems that we just cannot keep up with the rest of the world in terms of just about anything. Our justice system is so slow that it takes at least 8 years to solve a low-profile homicide and murder case. Our economic growth is so slow that it makes you wonder if there is any true growth at all. It seems the only things we are fast at is texting, typing pointless status messages in our Facebook accounts, and running away from our responsibilities and even our own national identity. We tend to accuse somebody or something of something that is sometimes completely out of their control that we imply a tone of arrogance or know-it-all over them. If you think you can do a better job than these men and women, then why don’t you actually do their jobs yourselves and see if you really think you can do a better job than these men and women?

The current situation of PAG-ASA simply shows the complete lack of faith and hope by the Filipinos in their government. It may be true that the problems in our country as deeply rooted and seems impossible to overcome, but since Filipinos are supposed to be strong-spirited and determined to make something out of nothing, then it is best for us to be more fair and critical in terms of our opinions on our surroundings. After all, there is a reason why it is called weather predicting, especially now that the impacts of climate change makes the mood of nature even harder to tell. You can only hope for the best.

Some people deserve better treatment. Those at PAG-ASA are some of them.

       

  

  

INJUSTICE LEAGUE

These honorable people are clapping for
the accomplishments of the President
... or so it seems.

Come July 25, it will be the 385th day of President Benigno Aquino III serving as the employee of his so-called “boss”, which is supposedly the way he looks at all the Filipinos in and out of the country. It also marks the day of his 2nd State of the Nation Address (SONA), which is promised to be full of first-year achievements, agendas, and future programs yet as expected will be a 40-minute speech of exaggerated accomplishments, rants against the opposition, and 30 ovations by the crocodiles disguised as honorable congressmen.

Yes, it seems like the Philippines is still travelling the long and winding road instead of the long and straight one for more than a year now. Change is indeed a long-term and very difficult process. But why is change so difficult to administer in a nation with quite a lot of manpower and resources to do so? 

It all started during the era of Spanish colonization. As much as the Spaniards have influenced our culture, traditions, and behavior, they never introduced the concept of an efficient, centralized government. For one, the Philippines is an archipelago, with the natural boundaries of water and land limiting chances of effective unification of any kind between the pre-colonization Filipinos and, later, the post-1521 Filipinos. Also, in this feudal-like system of government, aside from the kiss-my-ass mentality of the ruling class to their grateful subjects, the supposed head of the Philippine Islands, the governor-general, only acted in a limited capacity as the representative of the King/Queen of Spain, while it really were the friars who were ruling the islands, equipped with the power of their “Lord” (which happens to be themselves) and the strength of their All Mighty Iron Fists. 

With such a weak rule over the archipelago comes a lack of effective administration over the economic trends in the Philippines at the time. As Spain itself is a nation which lacks the resources to support themselves (which is the driving force behind their unintentional discovery of the Philippines), they saw the need to involve themselves in trading and commerce with the Chinese, British, and other nations at the time. This exclusive group of families and/or individuals who gained the opportunity happen to either be Spaniards or mestizos, or at least have significant Spanish blood in them with education from Europe. This allowed them to build their wealth through the accumulation and improvement of their lands and create a constant source of wealth for future generations to come. In other words, these families acquired a strong economic base independent of the state, allowing them to exert unprecedented influence over the state officials and civilians alike without getting their hands dirty in the game of politics. Of course, during the Spanish period these families needed to make a pledge of allegiance with the religious orders to ensure their safety, in exchange for economic stimulus packages for the friars. 

This will continue as the Philippines was transferred from Spain to the United States. If you must know, the United States federal government is decentralized as well, and since pretty much every colonial power models the colony’s form of government is modeled after that of the colonizer, the Philippines will endure a lack of a prominent central leader for a while longer. This time, however, the families I mentioned have built such a strong base of wealth and influence that they have actually monopolized almost every single aspect of living in their respective local areas. As a result, to easily spread their control over the islands, the Americans decided to ally themselves with these future oligarchs. This creates a special relationship that will form the template for years to come: with the backing of the Americans (or in the future, some powerful economic figure), a local economic power will look to enter politics as a means to further protect his/her interests while he/she rewards his/her sponsors with free gifts, usually in money form or loophole-in-law advice. 

As the Philippines gained its independence, this common practice became widespread, with the war-weary people willing to accept anything from any politician to bring the Filipinos back on their feet. Along with the changes in the social, economic, and moral institutions in Philippine society came the changes in the ideologies, laws, and political theories. With the ensuing massive corruption in the early post-war era, the Filipinos became more vigilant of their leaders, actively supporting laws that will ban any no-democratic practice. As a result, a powerful authority figure will usually resort to asking his/her wife/husband, sons, daughters, and any other relatives to take over the operations of his mini-empire until he/she becomes eligible again.

You may ask at this point, just what in the name of love am I talking about? Well, to put things in a simpler perspective, what I just flapped my virtual gums about is basically how a political dynasty is formed in the Philippines. And these dynasties are mostly, if not the sole reason why the Philippines is still stuck in the long and winding road we have been trying to get out of for so long. 

If you have any doubts about my assumption, just think about this: there is a specific clause in the 1987 Constitution that clearly defines just what is legal and what is not. Article II Section 26 of the Constitution states “The State shall guarantee equal access to opportunities for public service, and prohibit political dynasties as may be defined by law”. So if the highest law of the land explicitly prohibits political dynasties in the Philippines, then how come the country is dominated by them?

The answer is simple. Just look at the current composition of our House of “Representatives”. Whatever these “honorable” congressmen are representing, there is no doubt that there is a strong presence of political families in the lower house. Did you know that at least 114 members, or 39.86% of the lower house are undisputed members of political families? Of course, there are other representatives who are closely identified with political clans or already have sold their souls to these families but are just too shy to admit it to the public. So if half of your representatives (and senators) are representing political families instead of legal political units, how are they going to effectively govern for the public good? And I am certain that all of us are aware of the situation in the local governments, especially around the Muslim Mindanao area. To top all of that, with all due respect to our capable, honest, and respectable leader, our current President is a member of not one, but two of the oldest and most powerful political (and economic) clans in Philippine history.

The bottomline is, well, it is our fault. Every day, we complain about how the Philippines is still stuck in a deep hole without any hope of climbing out of because moles keep on digging deeper to find more gold underground for themselves. Every week, you blame your professor for giving you what you deem as difficult requirements though the truth is, you did not exert enough effort to do better. Every year, we whine about how things are going to be different now that we chose new highly advanced gadgets that look fancy yet in the end, it just does the same thing as your old gadget. 

So come July 25, if you have the time to watch or listen to the SONA of President Aquino, I suggest you do so. After all, despite all the possible non-sense that we may hear on that day, keep in mind that he has been in the office for only 385 days. And the Filipinos trust his leadership, more or less. So do I. The SONA is not just some way to promote yourself like some overhyped pop sensation; it is for us, the common Filipinos, to learn not only the state of our nation, but also what we can do about them in our own ways.

It was never one man’s fault. It has always been the fault of the political families. Just do not forget that we all have a contribution to whatever is happening in the Philippines, no matter how bad, small, or insignificant it looks like. 

Perhaps July 25, 2011 will not be much of a waste of time after all.